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Can you find a successful model (and defend its success)?
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Fall 2022 Prof. Cherveny
MA 611: Problem Set 3
Due: Friday, November 11th 11:59pm
Submit homework by uploading a zipped folder to Blackboard with your .Rmd
and .html files. There is nothing else to turn in!
The file website visits.csv contains the daily number of unique visitors to a popular
statistics help website for college students that occurred between Sunday, January 5, 2020
and Saturday, June 20, 2020 (n = 168). Variables include:
Day Day of the week
Date Date in MM/DD/YY format
UniqueVisits Number of unique visitors to the website
Only the UniqueVisits variable should be modeled. The other two are labels.
Write an R notebook that explores the number of unique visitors to the statistics help
website using the techniques learned in the first eight weeks of class. Besides correct
usage of time series tools, the notebook should present your work well.
Parts of that narrative should include:
• An introduction to the data set and overview of contents in the analysis
• A nice plot of the website visitors time series and qualitative description
• A brief investigation into the trend and seasonality in the data. Remember, the goal
of tools such as qualitative description, contextual thinking, decompositions, and
component strength metrics is typically to decide which type of time series model is
appropriate (should the model incorporate seasonality, for instance?).
• An investigation into the application of the Holt-Winters family of models to the
number of website visitors. Can you find a successful model (and defend its success)?
• An investigation into the application of the SARIMA family of models to the number
of website visitors. Can you find a successful model (and defend its success)?
• A comparison of the in-sample accuracy for any successful models as well as a
baseline from an appropriate naive in-sample prediction method.
• A plot of number of website visitors, in-sample predictions for any successful models
you uncover, and two weeks worth of forecasts. Make sure the plot has good labels.
• What is your ultimate recommendation as an analyst? How many website visits
would you forecast for Tuesday, June 30th, 2020?
The assignment must be done as an R notebook.
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